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Well then either literally all other devs are so damn lazy that they can't just keep pumping out expansions on the same scale as EQ or EQ by its nature is easier to make those kinds of expansions for. Cause if the game was so successful, obviously other companies would look at it and try to copy its success, but, as the history has shown, it's probably impossible to pump out that much content for a game that requires more developmental time. Though I'm not a dev so I wouldn't really know.
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You do realize that you've described predominant majority of mmos, right? And I somehow doubt that even EQ made brand new AI for each new monster across their huge 29 expansions. So me battling against a person that's using new abilities would be the same as you fighting against a new mob that might have some new abilities (though even that doesn't always happen). Except you know what the difference is? I got new abilities too, which makes my opponent react to them in some new way, while the mob AI won't change.
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Except those rebalances work in pvp games. With mobas being the perfect example of that. Mobas keep being relevant exactly because they have changes to their "classes" and items. That is what keeps the game fun and the experience "new". If classes never changed across decades of playing - the game would be utterly solved, pvp would be utterly boring and pve would get solved within days just because players would know the upper limit of their class and would use it to figure out how to beat the mobs. Afaik that's exactly what happens in WoW prepatch tests (or however they're called). Which is why Bliz have been resetting their dps boosting systems each patch, because that would change how classes play and would make players spend a bit more time figuring shit out (though it usually gets leaked/datamined either way).
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How exactly does EQ(2) manage to have enough content for a year off of one expansion? Is it long grind? Is it difficulty? Is it "clear what's there and wait for more" approach? Are there hardcore players that clear all the new content within weeks/month and then do whatever they want? What does the daily gameplay of a normal EQ(2) player consist of?
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BDO is also ridden with p2w, bad gaming practices, RNG OE fest, huge siege lag (afaik) and a slew of other problems on top of it having a pvp system - and even with all of those it's still a relatively big mmo. Yes, obviously not wow/ff14 size, but also not the same as countless 100-500 player ones either. So if Ashes comes into the genre and manages to deliver on their promises w/o most of the issues listed above - I'd assume it'll be successful enough.
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I mean, tbh, what I see is just hardcore players being hardcore, while the more casual crowd doesn't even try to clear that top lvl content because they realize they can't. And from what I've seen of not even top difficulty boss clears in WoW - that is exactly the case.
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From my understanding, caravans will most likely be used by guilds or at least big groups of people, because they're meant to transfer huge volumes of goods and I'd assume a random casual player wouldn't just have x100 their inventory of resources on him out of nowhere. They might have x10, but that's why there's mules which will be way safer than caravans (assuming the corruption system works as intended obviously).
And those who join guilds and/or big groups of people would probably be more hardcore than your everyday casual player. And just as the hardcore pve players, they should be ready to lose more than those casual players. And if the gear tier system is properly balanced, they should have better chances in a fight than 100:1. But even if it is 100:1, the diminishing returns should play enough of a role so that that 1 win is way bigger for the weaker side than that 100 is for the winners.
Let's take a party of super hardcore top lvl players that could win those 100 times vs a party of 2 gear tiers lower dudes that miiight win once if they play their hearts out while the top bois are slacking.
As you've said, the weak party was probably out gathering shit and not really progressing too far, because they'd hoped to sell their gatherables for some good cash and progress that way. Their gear would be in good shape and, even if it decays a bit, it's fairly cheap to repair cause the gear itself is cheap.
The super top tier strong party has been bashing their heads against uber mobs and bosses and dying in constant pvp for those mobs and bosses. They've spent a shitton of money on gear repairs and have restocked their uber costly gear several times due to its decay. They make way more money doing all that stuff rather than attacking some weak caravans. But on the off chance of them getting super bored (though I doubt that's possible), they decide to attack such a caravan.
They go to a lower leveled node to catch some weak caravan and they come across that weak party of people. They attack the caravan, fight it out with the weak bois, might not get decay on their gear cause they probably didn't really die in that fight (if the system works only on death), but they did spend a fair bit of time doing that. And all that they got from it was 50% of some mid tier resource that barely covers their wasted time.
Now there's 2 possibilities. The strong bois could say "what the fuck are we doing wasting time on this shit?" or "let's repeat this 99 more times just for the hell of it".
The weak party is a bit sad because they lost half their shit (if we assume you're right on how caravans work), but they were prepared for the loss, because if they weren't - they coulda just ran mules 1.2 times and been completely fine. They could now also choose, risk it again or go run the mules.
If strong bois decide to leave, weak bois are fine either way. If strong bois stay, weak bois will lose once more and then definitely run mules to cut their losses as short as possible in their situation. So in the end strong bois lose out in any of those setups, mainly because their level of progress requires them to do way more important stuff than attacking some random casual caravans.
And if instead of the top lvl super strong bois it was just a party of dudes whose gear is only a tier higher than the weak bois' gear - the ratio wouldn't be anywhere close to 100:1 (again, assuming that gear tier balance is good) and the stronger bois would lose out more because of gear decay, which is now way more probable, considering that the power lvls are similar. And even if the strong bois still win way more times, the weak bois can always just run mules which would mean that strongs have wasted their time not farming better places.
If Intrepid manages to have this kind of diminishing returns for the stronger players, I think pvp losses won't be as prevalent. Obviously a few casual players might try running their caravans completely solo, get ambushed and die, and then leave the game because of it, but that's just the nature of the game. And I hope Intrepid has a good tutorial that suggests running a mule before trying out a caravan.
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Relatively speaking, the same applies to the difficulty scaling of pve. A hardcore player has more time to spend on the game. Which leads to him being better geared, which allows him to bash his head against top lvl content for a long period of time. And he spends a ton of time doing so, meaning that the reward-to-time spent ration is most likely way smaller than what it was for all the previous gear tiers. One might call it diminishing.
The casualer player has less time so even getting the pre-top tier of gear is already a hassle. And each failed attempt, trying to get that gear, impacts the casual player more than hardcore player's attempt at top lvl content does to him. And usually, as I said before, this leads to the casual player stopping their attempts and either leaving the game or just being content with whatever they have.
If they leave, it's the same as if they left due to pvp, if they stay to enjoy other sides of the game - the corruption system should prevent anyone else from interrupting their enjoyment.
Now we obviously have the bigger pvp picture of node sieges that lead to freeholds getting raided and all that, but I think that's a discussion for another time.
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I think you misunderstood what I said there. I meant that Ashes should try to be the game that has years-long strong communities that stay in the game not only for the game, but for the company of themselves. I hope Ashes doesn't take several huge shitty turns that lead to people wanting classic versions of the game and/or make their own servers. I want this game to succeed because it's the only mmo I see myself playing, considering the absolute state of the genre currently.